Blog.
Shape What Britain Buys: checking in on our 2024 predictions
Way back in January, we launched Shape What Britain Buys 2024 (SWBB 2024), our predictions for the year ahead. SWBB 2024 was also designed to highlight some of the issues we believe are changing the way consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands and their agency partners think about retail media.
What made the list?
- The connected store — and its vital role in helping to snap customers out of “sleep shopping” behaviours.
- Continuous commerce — and the need for brands to look beyond promotional periods when engaging customers.
- Blended shopping — and the increasingly important role the digital shelf plays in shaping in-store purchasing decisions.
- Results beyond ROAS — and the gathering demand for retail media measurement that looks beyond pure ad spend.
- Retail media teams — and the coming together of different marketing disciplines in pursuit of a better, and more integrated approach.
Eight months on, and we felt that it was time to take the temperature of those trends. So, in this check-in, we’re going to run through each of the topics above, look at our initial predictions, and see how things have changed (or not) in the first half of 2024.
The connected store.
Per our original summary, the connected store is “a network of touchpoints that brings shopping to life through sight, sound, and taste.” It’s the “connected” element that’s key here, though. With a range of attention-grabbing channels at their disposal, the connected store gives brands and agencies the ability to have an ongoing conversation with customers.
What did we predict for 2024?
“With every channel playing its own role, brands that identify their optimal mix will cut through the noise from brands competing on price alone.”
And did we get it right?
In our eyes, yes. Already this year, we’ve seen multiple examples of brands using Tesco stores as a connected creative canvas. Head over to the SWBB 2024 trends hub to see how Mondelez helped Cadbury to its best easter ever at Tesco using the connected store.
Continuous commerce.
“Shopping is changing,” we wrote back in January, “customers mashing up missions and fitting in visits wherever they can.” With big shops now complemented by midweek top-ups, on-the-go drop-ins, and deliveries to the door, customers are always building their baskets—whether they know it or not. For brands, this era of continuous commerce presents a chance to create a permanent presence in shopper mindsets.
What did we predict for 2024?
“Rather than relying solely on transient promotional periods, always-on retail media will help them stay front of mind all year long – with personalised, app-based product recommendations proving to be particularly effective.”
And did we get it right?
In an analysis of media bookings from the past year, retail media is still heavily targeted around promotional periods. There’s a while to go until the end of the year, though, and we do expect to see further progress here, but this trend might take a longer to come to fruition.
Blended shopping.
Online grocery has enjoyed spectacular success over the past five or so years. It’s unsurprising, then, that most people are now “blended” shoppers—buying both in-store and online as the need arises. That creates opportunity for brands, particularly when it comes to the path to purchase. With the right approach, the digital shelf can be used to prime customers to buy before they even step through the door.
What did we predict for 2024?
“This will mean more online messaging designed specifically with in-store decision making in mind to engage with shoppers as they research and mentally curate their baskets.”
And did we get it right?
Possibly. While we don’t yet have the data to prove that more brands are using digital media to influence in-store purchases, we do know that omnichannel campaigns drive sales uplift of more than 43% compared to in-store only media initiatives.
Results beyond ROAS.
Measurement has long been one of retail media’s most powerful USPs. The “closed-loop” nature of the retail ecosystem means that it’s easier than ever to track the link between ad exposure and actual purchase. As with any other form of media, though, evolution is key—and brands have been clamouring to track retail media performance beyond return on advertising spend.
What did we predict for 2024?
“Ultimately the success of a retail media campaign will no longer be judged on ROAS or sales numbers alone. Instead, adaptive measurement frameworks will provide a wider and more balanced view of impact.”
And did we get it right?
Pretty much, and with time to spare. We’ve spent a lot of 2024 working with clients on the creation of long-term impact metrics. We’ve also seen an increasing trend towards “personalised” measurement—with brands tracking success factors that matter most to them.
Retail media teams.
As we acknowledged back in January, the idea of retail media teams isn’t new—WARC has already noted a trend towards the creation of “Centres of Excellence” focusing on the discipline. In 2024, though, we expected that the industry might take a step towards true formalisation, investing in dedicated teams that would bring shopper, trade, brand, agency, and performance expertise together.
What did we predict for 2024?
“Bringing together a variety of marketing disciplines… [retail media] teams [will be] infused with a thorough understanding of different retail media dynamics. As “blended shopping” continues to grow, this will give marketing professionals confidence that they can keep pace with changing behaviours.”
And did we get it right?
Eight months in, it’s still too early to say. What we have seen, though, is greater collaboration across retail media briefs—suggesting that even if they’re not yet creating formalised teams, brands and agencies are at least bringing in the combined expertise they need to deliver better results.
What's next?
We will be back with a full review of our five key trends towards the end of the year. If you have yet to read the report or want a more in-depth review of our predictions check-in, visit the SWBB 2024 trends hub.
Access SWBB 2024 trends hub